I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat-cat bankers.就像老毛要打擊走資的「牛鬼蛇神」，奧巴馬的此一表態會否掀起美國社會仇視富有銀行家的浪潮? 誠然，將獨裁老毛與民選奧巴馬相題並論顯然風馬牛不相及。但是，美國社會也是十分不滿銀行輸打贏要的作風。無論如何，竊只想指出牛鬼蛇神論及Fat-cat bankers談話是一個時代的拐點，可能預示着肥貓銀行家的末日。不知是否攞景抑或贈興，英國Barclays銀行前總裁Martin Taylor也在大西洋彼岸的《金融時報》撰文發砲狂轟銀行家貪得無厭以呼應奧巴馬。其文章一針見血指出:
Observers of financial services saw unbelievable prosperity and apparently immense value added. Yet two years later the whole industry was bankrupt. A simple reason underlies this: any industry that pays out in cash colossal accounting profits that are largely imaginary will go bust quickly. Not only has the industry - and by extension societies that depend on it - been spending money that is no longer there, it has been giving away money that it only imagined it had in the first place. Worse, it seems to want to do it all again.言下之意Taylor先生似在暗示銀行家在收取花紅事上有詐騙之嫌。當然，竊不認為銀行家或銀行業因此一役會就此消失。只不過，那種年終獎金花紅動輒便數以千萬美元的盛況在可見將來將成絕響。銀行家受政府嚴密監管將可斷言。難怪，當總統奧巴馬在剛剛過去的星期一傳召各大銀行主管往白宮「共商大計」，高盛總裁Lloyd C. Blankfein、大摩主席John J. Mack及花旗銀行主席Richard D. Parsons竟因華盛頓天氣惡劣而決席。會無好會，此三位聰明人士可能預其去開會都沒有好下場，所以索性決席。以他們的聰明才智，投資及銀行業務已不再「性感」的現實或已了然於胸。現在或是時候為自己打算打算，在規例容許下出售現在還有價的股權或認購期權籌措退休金實是最佳出路。在此大環境下，難怪強勢如高盛，其股價走勢在過去兩個多月也是乏善可陳。
What were the sources of this imaginary wealth? First, spreads on credit that took no account of default probabilities (bankers have been doing this for centuries, but not on this scale). Second, unrealised mark-to-market profits on the trading book, especially in illiquid instruments. Third, profits conjured up by taking the net present value of streams of income stretching into the future, on derivative issuance for example. In the last two of these the bank was not receiving any income, merely "booking revenues". How could they pay this non-existent wealth out in cash to their employees? Because they had no measure of cash flow to tell them they were idiots, and because everyone else was doing it. Paying out 50 per cent of revenues to staff had become the rule, even when the "revenues" did not actually consist of money.
也許，現在是時候減持銀行股了。
