The Crisis of Credit Visualized

Good presentation of the whole saga. But we should also credit the rating agency for this whole mess.


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

The Next 100 Years

To most anti-Americans, the most astonishing insight offered by the book written by Dr. George Friedman is that "the United States - far from being on the verge of decline - has actually just begun its ascent". The logic, according to the book, is very simple: United States will continue to control the oceans. America, being geographically sandwhiched between the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, couldn't be invaded. But through its powerful navy and aircraft carriers, United States could invade other countries whenever and wherever it choose. In fact, collapse of the Lehman Brothers and the aftermath surge of the United States Treasury bonds should be the Exhibit A. The flood of money into the US debt market vividly shows that global investors have no other choices of safe haven but the US Treasury. Backed by the overwhelming military power which guarantees the nation's absolute control of the ocean and hence the global trade route, the US government's debt is literally speaking RISK-FREE!

I also agree with Dr. Friedman's notion that Turkey will rise. The logic is also very simple: Turkey is stable. It must be remembered that until World War I, Turkey was the seat of a major empire - the Ottoman Empire. The Muslim Empire lasts more than six hundred years, longer than any dynasty in China. As the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Arab world to the south are all unstable, Turkey is the only stable platform in the midst of chaos. Stability means people have much more time and resources devoted to economic activity and hence growth. There is also the question of geography. Strategically located between Europe, the Middle East and Russia and controlling the crucial access between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, Turkey by default thrives on trading. With its economy surging, it will likely reemerge in its old role, as the dominant force in the region.

I have strong reservation against Poland tipped to be the coming regional hegemony. The decline of Germany as cited to to be the first reason is not convincing. If the decline of Germany owing to the demographic shift is a foregone conclusion, there are other Central European countries not least Poland willing to take the lead in filling the power vacuum. In terms of history, though Poland had been a great power during the sixteenth century, the Turkish empire had been constantly interfering Poland's internal affairs. If the reemergence of Turkish empire holds true, the rise of Poland would be undermined by the Turks. Just because the United States may back Poland in fighting the Russians can't be the major reason behind the surge of Poland. Don't forget the United States may choose another country to be her ally in dealing the polar bear.

Finally, Chinese are not advised to read this book because there wouldn't be any Chinese century. China in 2020s will be fragmented, living under the shadow of a very strong Japan.

不認不認還需認。

剛在歐洲巡迴表演的温總還在說買美債要考慮分散風險云云。言猶在言，其馬仔 - 中國銀行業監督管理委員的羅平 - 便在紐約訴苦:

Except for US Treasuries, what can you hold?” “Gold? You don’t hold Japanese government bonds or UK bonds. US Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option.”

"We hate you guys. Once you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] . . .we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do.”

講來講去就是堂堂中華上國仍然被美帝牽着鼻子走! 鬼叫人民幣唔係硬貨幣!? 若然人仔世界通行，就一天都光哂。

上樑不正，下樑果然歪。

一位小學課程主任認為:

為什麽下一代不愛看報紙? 因為教師自己也不看。

本校有超過50名老師，但只有少數有閱報的習慣及認識時事的，至於「關心時事」更寥寥無幾，那麼，學生在這種教育氛圍下又怎會養成閱報的習慣呢？

為什麽下一代不愛看報紙? 因為家長自己也不看。

其次是家長，家長影響更深遠，本校只是一間普通小學，家長來自小康家庭，根據不時在班上進行的調查，愛閱報的家長實屬少數，而且大都是閱讀渲染色情、暴力及富劇情的新聞，對於推廣閱報質素，簡直是難上加難。

為什麽下一代不愛看報紙? 因為多讀報紙不能考試100分。也因為多讀報紙不會使人發達。

未能擺脫殖民地式教育的色彩，仍過於傾斜學科知識，忽略學習的真正意義，因此，報章相對於學習便「一無是處」。

看來我是對的。有低質素的讀者才能孕育出低質素的報紙。蘋果、東方、太陽等「報紙」大行其道說明了一切!

過節 陳雲

讀畢陳雲《過節》文章, 有感而發, 遂決定在此完文登錄。

過節 陳雲

碩鼠不走，土牛不來。聖誕與農曆新年緊密而至，香港民間連過中西兩節，喜氣洋洋，沖淡了金融海嘯的愁雲慘霧，也阻遲了經濟衰退的步伐。樂而忘憂，滯後效應令市民偷得一刻歡娛，商店在蕭條之下發一筆小財。過年過節，有節日狂歡的嘉年華現象（carnival），中國王朝時代，京城的衙差（舊稱「金吾衛」）在年節放假數十日，使市民狂歡，可以當街賭博和觀戲，風俗誌稱之為「金吾不禁」。即使舊日港英殖民地官員，也懂得在年節解除許多禁令，准許小販當街擺賣，市區盡量不檢控違例泊車，郊區則任由燃放爆仗煙花，務求放縱市民心情，疏解民間鬱悶。可惜目下專政香港之官僚，最怕過節的放縱與寬容，慶典舉辦之地，警察林立，以欄杆管制人流，頻繁的電視廣告也呼籲遊人保持冷靜克制，遵守警察指示，而且不留下垃圾。與市民尋過節，是香港官僚過節的任務。

正當高官趁新年過節氣氛，頻頻出巡，掏出大疊鈔票，以碩鼠之顏，示範消費救市，呼籲和諧社會、家庭團結與自力更生之際，母女趁年卅晚，在西環卑路乍街後巷叫賣煨番薯，下午二時遭食環署小販管理隊票控及拘捕，兩籮番薯連同炭爐手推車一並充公。坊眾見狀，憐憫婦孺冒春寒於陋巷謀生，代為求情，謂母女二人往年都在新年假期擺賣煨番薯，賺取微利，坊眾及鄰近店舖並無怨言，懇求從輕發落，有人甚至願為代交罰款。惟販管隊人員堅拒眾議，嚴刑峻法，引來近二百民眾理論，直斥不近人情。

酷吏治港，民不聊生

當局犯了眾怒之後，竟又大發淫威，在十五分鐘後召來兩輛警車到場坐鎮。擾攘一個半小時後，母女終被捉拿，一名熱心街坊奉上百元鈔票慰問。有市民謂：「又唔係打劫，又唔係捉賊，拉小販都咁大陣仗！」又指摘販管隊執法偏私，附近花檔及菜檔放貨物於路上阻街，當局卻視而不見。

自從官府與地產財閥緊密勾結之後，官府判定小販爭奪店舖生意，損害金主利益，於是堅決掃蕩，毫不容情。在香港阻隢民主者，除了財閥之外，還有一眾官僚，否則人人手持一票，官僚豈能專政橫行，作威作福？

我在農村長大，知道在急景殘年，瑟縮街頭擺兩籮番薯叫賣的滋味，而要在大除夕將兩籮活命番薯充公，如斯酷吏，恐怕在當年攻佔香港的日本憲兵隊中也難找到。至於小弟，則不幸在大除夕夜十一時去了沙田瀝源的年宵花市，行經濕貨區，見花檔攤販匆匆收拾行裝，播音喇叭重複播放花檔投標的規例，謂如果不清理而遺留垃圾，除檢控罰款之外，來年將取消投標資格云云。可惡者，播音並非一兩句警告了事，而是將整篇投標的合約附例逐條朗讀，公然訓令攤販。其時花市仍未結束，遊人興致正濃，當局如此訓人，令攤販緊張兮兮，遊人大惑不解，真是大煞風景。身邊的師奶說：「讀乜嘢呀，關我地咩事呀？」麻甩佬說：「黐鳩線，讀啲咁嘅嘢！」讀到附例第十九條Ｄ款的時候，我應和麻甩街坊，謂：「曾蔭權，丟那媽！」也許旁邊有混入人群的便衣警探得知而報訊，讀到第二十一條Ｃ之後，條文未完，播音喇叭戛然而止。

高牆堅壁，與民為敵

己丑年初二，鄉議局主席劉皇發依俗例於車公廟為香港求籤，得第二十七下籤。籤曰：「君不須防人不肖，眼前鬼卒皆為妖；秦王徒把長城築，禍去禍來因自招。」 解曰：「內有家鬼，自身不安，家宅不吉，求財不遂。」政府惶恐之餘，不迭派人曲解籤詩，謂車公提示港人團結，注重社會和諧云云。

籤詩敷演道教《太上感應篇》之首兩句，「禍福無門，惟人自招」。神道設教，順天應人，車公籤文直指港府家鬼內亂，民眾深有所感，報章議論不絕。「君不須防人不肖」，指不肖者並非外人；「眼前鬼卒皆為妖」，倒米作亂，如妖精搞局者，正是衙門中人。「秦王徒把長城築」，是特首恐懼府外之人，長城高築，可惜都是徒勞無功，有如秦朝之衰亡，非因外敵之患，而是欺壓民眾過甚，招致四海沸騰，人民揭竿而起。詩文「禍去禍來」並非指禍患會過去，「禍去」只是襯辭，「禍來」才是主旨，有如成語生死未卜、寵辱不驚之類，重點都在不吉之事。

曾蔭權上台之後，獨攬大權，用人唯親，孤立反對派，藐視立法議會，連政府委任之諮詢委員會也盡是親政府之傀儡，務求堵塞異議，向北京展示香港一片和諧之假象。內務方面，老曾愛欽點家臣愛將任事，架空同僚，凌駕職權，昔日港府政務官搜集民意、進行內部辯難的開明作風，已焉失去。特首身邊，唯唯諾諾之徒充塞，正直之士遠去。政府失去內部制衡，千人一面，毫無獨立思考，只懂得欺壓人民，箝制自由，甚至於大除夕擒拿婦孺，訓令遊人。金融海嘯，世界動盪，香港大難臨頭，而官府只向市民尋隙問過，不敢擔當大任，車公之籤文，豈非當頭棒喝？

中國護航艦隊遭不明潛艇跟蹤

明報報導三艘頂級中國戰艦遭敵(?)軍潛艇跟蹤，中國解放軍海軍(PLAN)首次面對挑戰。來者不善，善者不來。『尖銳』護航編隊在執行了第三次護航行動才發現一艘自編隊進入印度洋後就一直跟蹤著的某國潛艇，其偵察力也實再太差了! 況且既然解放軍海軍在15曰才發現敵踪，又怎確定他是『自編隊進入印度洋後就一直跟蹤著』的呢? 邏輯上說不過去。不過『頂級』中國戰艦隊能迫敵潛艇出水面及驅趕之，倒也是值得慶賀。

對香港政府09/10財政預算的一點意見。

當維持治安的警察竟成罪惡源頭，你甘心付差餉嗎?

當財金官員讓國際大鱷如雷曼任意打劫本港市民，你仍願以千萬年薪重金禮聘?

當市民流落異鄉孤立無援，政府依「指引辦事」愛理不理，你還願意交稅嗎?

市民身家性命財產這政府保護不力，難為他們還有顏面向市民攤大手板!?

竊以為港府唯一要做的不是退稅而是永久取消薪俸稅。大幅縮減政府規模，裁掉無謂的廢人。香港才有希望。