Why China Won't Dominate the 21st Century

By George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR and author of The Next 100 Years.

泰國謎團。

黃衫軍即人民民主聯盟PAD在公元2008年佔據曼谷國際機埸，間接導致了他信集團代理人Samok Sundaravej及Somchai Wongsawat兩屆政府倒台。而現在紅衫軍即反獨裁人民民主陣線UDD藉衝擊東盟會議，迫使現政府反他信集團代理人Abhisit Vejjajva倒台。三屆政府在不足三年來被非民主手段衝擊或受壓或倒台，泰國的民主路可算是受到沉重的打擊。

學術界對泰之亂局作出不同解讀，大致上可歸納出下列三點:

甲) 農村與城市之爭。在他信時代，政府政策向農業傾斜，所以大部份分析也指出親他信集團的紅衫軍大部份是鄉里及貧下中農。而黃衫軍則代表專業人士及中產的利益。

乙) 他信與泰國皇室不和。不少評論指出他信勢力過大並向泰皇出言不遜。他信更被指在今次衝突中越洋鼓動及指揮紅衫軍包圍代表皇室的樞密院總統Prem Tinsulanonda的私人住所。

丙) 清邁及曼谷之鬥。有評論指他信是清邁之子，並跟泰北土豪有千絲萬縷的關係。並更暗示外力如宿敵緬甸及柬埔寨也介入。

姑勿論如何，中立的軍方理論上是平衡這兩股勢力的重要力量。但很不幸，從紅衫軍能成功衝擊東盟會議看，軍警也不是百分之百向現政府效忠。顯然，他信的泰北勢力亦已滲透入軍警體糸。至於第三權的媒體亦發揮不了監督政府的責任。因為反他信黃衫軍頭領Sondhi Limthongkul是傳媒大亨，其角色使媒體公信力大打折扣。因此，此次紅衫軍便很方便被評為暴民及擾亂國家分子。顯然，在傳媒的影響下，親他信集團在輿論戰中佔了下風。不過亞洲時報亦有報道指出紅衫軍正在泰北招兵買馬及私運軍火，穩穩然有武裝起義的苗頭。在泰王普密蓬風燭殘年的背景下，泰國各路精英勢力如親他信、反他信、軍方及樞密院正密鑼緊鼓佈處下一步的動作。不過有一點可肯定，就是每股勢力都以人民民主做幌子去推翻敵對勢力，泰國人民在此次大奪權中卻完全沒有選擇! 悲哉!

中國人要管?

成龍這個奴才! 蘋果日報如是說。緣起是這位沒讀過書的一介武夫在海南島一區域論壇上說香港和台灣太自由了，很亂。最後他感慨地指出中國人就是要被管。

是耶? 非耶?

自由意志是可貴的。每人生下來便應有天賦人權及自由，美國立國憲法也開宗明義列明。原則上，竊反對任何人受任何形式的管束。但是每人在享受其自由的時候，不得假自由之名去行干涉或影響甚至剝奪其他人享受自由的權力。此乃公民社會必需具備之元素。所以，就算成龍說了多麼令人難堪的話，我也會支持他自由自在發表言論的權利。

為了保障各人能平等行使自由，究其實，某程度上的管束是必需的。此乃法治之基礎。所以成龍的說法流於片面。要管。但怎樣管? 管什麼? 不管什麼? 誰去管? 誰授權誰去管? 此乃更重要之課題。謹希望成龍之狂言能作為引子帶着社會上認真討論。那成龍這個奴才便功德無量了。

現代『漢語』。

當內地憤青出力斥責『小日本』的時候，竊以為他們不能用以下之詞彙來表達他們的憤慨:

哲學、科學、化學、企業、歷史、體操、動員、政策、系統、政黨、警察、獨裁、反應、單位、關係、物質、成分、動議、條件、概念、意識、直覺、命題、對象、目的、主義、定義、原則、代表、出版、前提、進化、演釋、綜合、意圖、背景、現象、現實、情報、絕對、抽象、肯定、否定、積極、消極、主觀、客觀、直接、間接、改良、改善、解放、批評、批判、概括、制約、調整等。

為什麼不能用? 因為根據著名語言學家王力先生《漢語史稿》的例證，『這些鴉片戰爭之後的新詞，大多數不是漢人自己創譯的，而是採用日本人的原譯。換句話說，現代漢語吸收西洋詞語，是通過日本語來吸收的』。

原來如此。沒有日本人的創意翻譯，我們現代中國人也許要變成啞巴了!

Goldman Sachs continues to lead.

Goldman Sachs is, in terms of share price performance, one of the strongest year-to-dated. Shares of the bank year-to-dated surged 43% with a market cap of US$55 billion. That is a terrific achievement given the daily bombardment of doom and gloom predictions by pundits such as Marc Faber or Nouriel Roubini. And make no mistakes, the market is efficient and rational because Goldman Sachs, in my opinion, will continue to lead Wall Street. It is because they are really smart. Just look at how its Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein reacted to the protest of two women and you will know.

Blankfein had just begun speaking at the Council of Institutional Investors’ spring conference today when two women mounted the stage next to him and unfurled a banner reading “we want our $ $ $ $ back.” Goldman Sachs, which accepted $10 billion in government aid last year, is among more than 500 financial companies that took Treasury funds.

Blankfein, 54, stopped and asked the audience, “Everybody got that?” He then turned to the protesters, who didn’t identify themselves, shook hands with one and said, “How about this? I’ll address that at the end. They’ve seen it. I’ll address it at the end if you get off now.”

They took his advice, stepping off the stage and settling in the audience.

Through small gesture like shaking hand and making promise to address the problem later, Mr. Blankfein has successfully calmed the dissents. Quite a brilliant move indeed. As a matter of fact, the speech made by Mr. Blankfein has touched on many sensitive subjects like the executive pay and the future regulatory regieme. Anyone who is interested in the field of Finance should take note. The initiatives proposed by Lloyd Blankfein may become the industry standard. They include:

a) Power granted to Risk and Control Manager. Risk managers need to have at least equal stature with their counterparts in revenue producing divisions. If there is a question about a mark or a disagreement about a risk limit, the risk manager's view should prevail.

b) New compensation package. No one should get compensated with reference to only his or her own P&L. Compensation should include an annual salary plus deferred compensation, which is appropriately discretionary because it is based on performance over the entire year. For senior people, most of the compensation should be in deferred equity. Only the firm's junior people should receive the majority of their compensation in cash. All equity awards should be subject to future delivery and/or deferred exercise over at least a three-year period. And, senior executive officers should be required to retain the bulk of the equity they receive until they retire. In addition, equity delivery schedules should continue to apply after the individual has left the firm.

c) Support Fair Value Accounting. To increase overall transparency and help ensure that book value really means book value, regulators should require that all assets across financial institutions be similarly valued. Fair value accounting gives investors more clarity with respect to balance sheet risk.

d) Self-regulation has its limits. A robust regulatory regieme necessary. Capital, credit and underwriting standards should be subject to more "dynamic regulation." Regulators should consider the regulatory inputs and outputs needed to ensure a regime that is nimble and strong enough to identify and appropriately constrain market excesses, particularly in a sustained period of economic growth.

e) Regulation of hedge fund needed. All pools of capital that depend on the smooth functioning of the financial system, and are large enough to be a burden on it in a crisis, should be subject to some degree of regulation. Yes, that includes large hedge funds and private equity funds.

That sure means the compliance and the human resources department of banks may need to hire a lot of people. Are you ready?