The Next 100 Years

To most anti-Americans, the most astonishing insight offered by the book written by Dr. George Friedman is that "the United States - far from being on the verge of decline - has actually just begun its ascent". The logic, according to the book, is very simple: United States will continue to control the oceans. America, being geographically sandwhiched between the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, couldn't be invaded. But through its powerful navy and aircraft carriers, United States could invade other countries whenever and wherever it choose. In fact, collapse of the Lehman Brothers and the aftermath surge of the United States Treasury bonds should be the Exhibit A. The flood of money into the US debt market vividly shows that global investors have no other choices of safe haven but the US Treasury. Backed by the overwhelming military power which guarantees the nation's absolute control of the ocean and hence the global trade route, the US government's debt is literally speaking RISK-FREE!

I also agree with Dr. Friedman's notion that Turkey will rise. The logic is also very simple: Turkey is stable. It must be remembered that until World War I, Turkey was the seat of a major empire - the Ottoman Empire. The Muslim Empire lasts more than six hundred years, longer than any dynasty in China. As the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Arab world to the south are all unstable, Turkey is the only stable platform in the midst of chaos. Stability means people have much more time and resources devoted to economic activity and hence growth. There is also the question of geography. Strategically located between Europe, the Middle East and Russia and controlling the crucial access between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, Turkey by default thrives on trading. With its economy surging, it will likely reemerge in its old role, as the dominant force in the region.

I have strong reservation against Poland tipped to be the coming regional hegemony. The decline of Germany as cited to to be the first reason is not convincing. If the decline of Germany owing to the demographic shift is a foregone conclusion, there are other Central European countries not least Poland willing to take the lead in filling the power vacuum. In terms of history, though Poland had been a great power during the sixteenth century, the Turkish empire had been constantly interfering Poland's internal affairs. If the reemergence of Turkish empire holds true, the rise of Poland would be undermined by the Turks. Just because the United States may back Poland in fighting the Russians can't be the major reason behind the surge of Poland. Don't forget the United States may choose another country to be her ally in dealing the polar bear.

Finally, Chinese are not advised to read this book because there wouldn't be any Chinese century. China in 2020s will be fragmented, living under the shadow of a very strong Japan.