市場初探。

究竟跌市幾時先完? 坦白講冇人知。其實不論藍籌股股票、金銀銅鐵、非美元外幣、天然資源都跌個七個一皮，其原因莫過於全球Deleveraging。那為甚麼發生大規模全球性Deleveraging? Salon.com How the World Works專欄作家Andrew Leonard有一精闢撮要:

The key to understanding Wall Street's woes is appreciating that a lot of people borrowed a lot of money to make a lot of very bad bets. Now, everyone is simultaneously worried that they don't have enough capital at hand to pay their debts when the collector comes calling. So everyone is attempting to sell everything they can find a buyer for in order to raise capital, and lower their debt exposure. This is what is known as "deleveraging." The problem is that when everyone attempts to deleverage at once, the market is flooded with more sellers than buyers, and the prices for everything salable fall, which just makes the whole mess worse for everyone.

所以，若然美國政府任由全球保險大王AIG倒閉，後果便不堪設想了。因為AIG跟全球的銀行及大投行都有大手買賣。其倒閉意昧着全球銀行及大投行都會蒙受一定損失。更多的「蟹貨」被迫放出市埸拍賣，其價格便大幅回落。穩健的銀行及大投行亦要齊齊受損失，看來這埸次按旋渦繼續惡化下去沒有盡頭。