Stratfor: A botched hostage rescue in the Philippines

I am no expert on the subject of security. Hat tip to Stratfor, one of the very famous intelligence gathering services and geopolitical event consultant based in Austin, Texas. They have offered their take on this tragic event and I've summed them up in the following:

a) Control of information. Hostage-taker Rolando Mendoza was able to talk to outsider on his cell phone and watch live media coverage of the incident, clearly violating one of the essential principles in dealing with hostage situation - isolate the hostage-taker.

b) Hostage taker's demand. It is hard to understand why the police refuse to reinstate Mendoza or send him a letter saying they had dropped the case against him. At the end of the day, they could arrest him and charge Mendoza other serious charges like kidnapping after the hostage situation is concluded.

c) Arrest of Mendoza's brother. Knowing that Mendoza was watching live coverage on the incident, the police made another mistake, aggravating the situation with the public arrest of Mendoza's brother.

d) First delay. Once Mendoza shot the first hostage, the negotiation should be over. It was time to attack. Unfortunately, there was a delay of about 20 minutes between the murder of the first hostages and the launching of the first assault attempt.

e) Second delay. When the police smash the windows of the bus with sledgehammer for more than a minute, Mendoza had ample time to kill all his hostages had he wished to do.

f) Third delay. When the assault team entered the bus from the rear, it was a clumsy attempt that was quickly repelled by Mendoza once he opened fire on the team. This half-hearted, tepid approach from the rear jeopardized the following through with the assault by storming the front door while Mendoza was firing a the police in the rear of the bus. The withdrawal of the police created another opportunity for Mendoza to kill all the hostages had he wished to do so.

g) Fourth delay. It took another hour for the police to re-approach the bus again. Again, Mendoza can kill all the hostages if he wished to do so.

h) Why not army? It is apparent that the Manila SWAT team unit lacked the experience, equipment and training to conduct such a demanding tactical operations. Given the prolonged duration of the hostage situation and the location in the nation's capital, national-level rescue unit like the army should have time to deploy to the scene if the government wished the army to get involved.

It is very lucky that eight hostages survived the ordeal. The only thing that saved them was Mendoza's apparent reluctance to kill them all. Make no mistakes, a bus does offer some challenges for a hostages operation. But it is also a very common transportation throughout the world. Hence, professional rescue teams should frequently practice bus takedowns. Apparently, the Manila SWAT failed us. The government of the Republic of the Philippines also failed us.

A Botched Hostage Rescue in the Philippines is republished with permission of STRATFOR.