2009年12月19日

Obama: I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat-cat bankers.

在遙遠的1966年六月一日,「偉大的」黨的喉舌《人民日報》發表了一篇社論,題目叫《橫掃一切牛鬼蛇神》,這篇毛澤東授意其政治秘書、中央文革小組組長陳伯達親自審定的社論,掀起了十年文革浩劫的序幕。千千萬萬各界別各單位的所謂「牛鬼蛇神」後來死的死殘的殘。而在2009年十二月十三日美國總統奧巴馬接受哥倫比亞《六十分鐘時事雜誌》訪問,總統在節目中亮出了底牌:
I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat-cat bankers.
就像老毛要打擊走資的「牛鬼蛇神」,奧巴馬的此一表態會否掀起美國社會仇視富有銀行家的浪潮? 誠然,將獨裁老毛與民選奧巴馬相題並論顯然風馬牛不相及。但是,美國社會也是十分不滿銀行輸打贏要的作風。無論如何,竊只想指出牛鬼蛇神論及Fat-cat bankers談話是一個時代的拐點,可能預示着肥貓銀行家的末日。不知是否攞景抑或贈興,英國Barclays銀行前總裁Martin Taylor也在大西洋彼岸的《金融時報》撰文發砲狂轟銀行家貪得無厭以呼應奧巴馬。其文章一針見血指出:
Observers of financial services saw unbelievable prosperity and apparently immense value added. Yet two years later the whole industry was bankrupt. A simple reason underlies this: any industry that pays out in cash colossal accounting profits that are largely imaginary will go bust quickly. Not only has the industry - and by extension societies that depend on it - been spending money that is no longer there, it has been giving away money that it only imagined it had in the first place. Worse, it seems to want to do it all again.

What were the sources of this imaginary wealth? First, spreads on credit that took no account of default probabilities (bankers have been doing this for centuries, but not on this scale). Second, unrealised mark-to-market profits on the trading book, especially in illiquid instruments. Third, profits conjured up by taking the net present value of streams of income stretching into the future, on derivative issuance for example. In the last two of these the bank was not receiving any income, merely "booking revenues". How could they pay this non-existent wealth out in cash to their employees? Because they had no measure of cash flow to tell them they were idiots, and because everyone else was doing it. Paying out 50 per cent of revenues to staff had become the rule, even when the "revenues" did not actually consist of money.
言下之意Taylor先生似在暗示銀行家在收取花紅事上有詐騙之嫌。當然,竊不認為銀行家或銀行業因此一役會就此消失。只不過,那種年終獎金花紅動輒便數以千萬美元的盛況在可見將來將成絕響。銀行家受政府嚴密監管將可斷言。難怪,當總統奧巴馬在剛剛過去的星期一傳召各大銀行主管往白宮「共商大計」,高盛總裁Lloyd C. Blankfein、大摩主席John J. Mack及花旗銀行主席Richard D. Parsons竟因華盛頓天氣惡劣而決席。會無好會,此三位聰明人士可能預其去開會都沒有好下場,所以索性決席。以他們的聰明才智,投資及銀行業務已不再「性感」的現實或已了然於胸。現在或是時候為自己打算打算,在規例容許下出售現在還有價的股權或認購期權籌措退休金實是最佳出路。在此大環境下,難怪強勢如高盛,其股價走勢在過去兩個多月也是乏善可陳。

也許,現在是時候減持銀行股了。

2009年12月12日

李嘉誠密密吸長江實業有什麼玄機?

據華爾街日報引述港交所的資料顯示,直至十二月八日李嘉誠在過去三個月內總共動用了大約廿一億港元(折合約二億七千萬美元)增持長江實業。其增持的每股平均價為九八元。



對李生來說二億美元是小數目。但是以李生無寶不落的投資高超技巧來說,在恒生指數已達二萬二的今天,其對長江實業的吸納不啻是對其價值投以信心一票。更妙的是李嘉誠密密吸竟沒有引起投資市場重視,其股價更在一百元左右上落。若此觀之,有理由相信這一浪的吸納更可能未完成。好戲還在後頭。

2009年12月9日

又發現一位自以為是的港女。

竊在一個Youtube加Smartphone的世界的舊文曾指出「網絡輿論如水,能載舟也能覆舟。」言者醇醇,聽者渺渺。近日,又有一感覺良好的港女將其教訓「賤的士司機」的視頻放上網,冀望引起網民共鳴並作出第二次的耀武揚威。誰不知功課沒有做好,教訓「賤的士司機」的理據不足。耀武不成,更當眾出醜,可謂自作自受。

看著這些港女,言辭尖酸刻薄,得勢而不饒人,可以看出是沒有任何家教。可悲的是這位女士竟是三子女之母,其子女在其身教之下恐怕也是步其後塵....

2009年12月6日

內地順口溜一條。

看着這條順口溜,幾時都覺得中國人其實創意無限。

職場八大不懂事:

領導敬洒你不喝;
領導小姐你先摸;
領導走路你坐車;
領導講話你囉嗦;
領導私事你瞎說;
領導洗澡你先脫;
領導挾菜你轉桌;
領導聽牌你自摸。

2009年12月4日