讀畢《信報》羅耕的<論迷信> , 心中滿不是味兒。羅兄質疑: 「對於那些「既定說法」，例如五行，為何一定要金木水火土五類？分固體、液體、氣體「三行」可否？其實無可無不可。又如八字，為何一定要年、月、日、時配干支得八字？加上分秒變成「十字」可乎？亦無不可。若「五行八字」變成「三行十字」，結果會否一樣？......... 姑且不質疑這些「既定說法」，由金木水火土推論到股市、由天干地支推到樓市，是否遠了一些？假使由固體、液體、氣體推論到股市，由時、分、秒推到樓市，大家又會否感覺穿鑿附會？就當可以了吧。」
五行之說大體出自古人對大自然四季觀察後而成。春天木旺、夏天火旺、秋天金旺及冬天水旺。在季節交接期則以土為中心。在下相信配合廿四節氣, 五行之說對於務農之中華民族大有裨益。每年立春(木旺之始, 亦云三陽啓泰) 是陽曆二月四日, 冬至(水極旺之時)是十二月廿二日。年年如是 , 生生不息。或許這些四時變化在羅兄心中也是「既定說法」?
未來是不可預測。子平得八字本已有其局限。再加上今人如要利用古人五行之說, 首要是去理解古人的邏輯丶喜好以及人生觀。偏差誤解在所難免。所以以五行去推測股票市場的確是不足信。但因個別術數師錯到離譜之推斷便推番五行之說, 豈不武斷? 無論如何, 以分固體、液體、氣體「三行」去觀萬事萬物, 若然羅兄能創一新學說去取代「既定說法」的五行, 本人第一個報名參讀。
2009年1月31日
2009年1月29日
2009年1月22日
咁嘅特首，簡直痛心疾首！
痛心疾特首 游清源
歷史，有兩種，大歷史由史官修，小歷史由說書傳。時至今日，史官就是「你的公僕」的一種，說書就是「你的名嘴」的一種。而在民間，小歷史（例如《乾隆皇下江南》）往往比大歷史（例如《資治通鑑》）更具影響力。可惜，這些，對歷史科「肥佬」的煲呔來說，無異於對牛彈琴。
一月十八日，即是煲呔押下誠信，宣布押後政改諮詢後大後日，他攜眷到元朗勝利牛丸吃牛丸麵（至於有沒有效法《孤男寡女》的劉德華吃牛鞭麵，則所有報道都沒有報道）。據報，就在他「雪雪聲」吃麵，吃到兩塊眼鏡片都起晒霞氣的時候，一位女士翩然而至，向他遞請願信。煲呔回應說，等我食完先啦。十分鐘後，煲呔離場，卻沒有接請願信，直接鑽進座駕。混亂中那位女士更跪在地上求他收信，但他沒有收，而其座駕也同時開動。結果，換來那位女士一句：「咁嘅特首，簡直痛心疾首！」
路人皆見，煲呔的問題同李小龍一樣，都是「讀得書少」，不知道《史記》早就講過，周公沖一次涼要握住把頭髮走出來三趟，食一餐飯要食食下吐番出來三勻（一沐三捉髮，一飯三吐哺），為的是接待天下英才，惟恐走寶。
假如當日煲呔見到那位女士遞請願信，即時吐番口中那注麵出來，然後雙手接信，順便問幾句，再走出門外同一班請願人士打招呼，以至來個大合照，鄙人敢寫包單，他在押後政改諮詢一事上所失的誠信，肯定可以好似粉筆字一樣一抹勾銷。可惜，隨着那位女士大喊「咁嘅特首，簡直痛心疾首」，此事所做成的傷害，恐怕比押後政改諮詢還要厲害十倍。記住：多人看的不是《三國志》，而是《三國演義》！
煲呔自認是電影迷，不妨去看看吳宇森的《赤壁：決戰天下》，留意一下飾演曹操的張豐毅沉吟《短歌行》，然後背誦最後十六字真言，正是：「山不厭高，海不厭深，周公吐哺，天下歸心。」從此也得記住，人生有四碗麵最難吃，除了杜月笙所說的人面、場面、情面，還有牛丸麵！
看罷信報游清源這篇文章，我們香港人對這個飲香港水、流香港血的特首，能不汗顏?
歷史，有兩種，大歷史由史官修，小歷史由說書傳。時至今日，史官就是「你的公僕」的一種，說書就是「你的名嘴」的一種。而在民間，小歷史（例如《乾隆皇下江南》）往往比大歷史（例如《資治通鑑》）更具影響力。可惜，這些，對歷史科「肥佬」的煲呔來說，無異於對牛彈琴。
一月十八日，即是煲呔押下誠信，宣布押後政改諮詢後大後日，他攜眷到元朗勝利牛丸吃牛丸麵（至於有沒有效法《孤男寡女》的劉德華吃牛鞭麵，則所有報道都沒有報道）。據報，就在他「雪雪聲」吃麵，吃到兩塊眼鏡片都起晒霞氣的時候，一位女士翩然而至，向他遞請願信。煲呔回應說，等我食完先啦。十分鐘後，煲呔離場，卻沒有接請願信，直接鑽進座駕。混亂中那位女士更跪在地上求他收信，但他沒有收，而其座駕也同時開動。結果，換來那位女士一句：「咁嘅特首，簡直痛心疾首！」
路人皆見，煲呔的問題同李小龍一樣，都是「讀得書少」，不知道《史記》早就講過，周公沖一次涼要握住把頭髮走出來三趟，食一餐飯要食食下吐番出來三勻（一沐三捉髮，一飯三吐哺），為的是接待天下英才，惟恐走寶。
假如當日煲呔見到那位女士遞請願信，即時吐番口中那注麵出來，然後雙手接信，順便問幾句，再走出門外同一班請願人士打招呼，以至來個大合照，鄙人敢寫包單，他在押後政改諮詢一事上所失的誠信，肯定可以好似粉筆字一樣一抹勾銷。可惜，隨着那位女士大喊「咁嘅特首，簡直痛心疾首」，此事所做成的傷害，恐怕比押後政改諮詢還要厲害十倍。記住：多人看的不是《三國志》，而是《三國演義》！
煲呔自認是電影迷，不妨去看看吳宇森的《赤壁：決戰天下》，留意一下飾演曹操的張豐毅沉吟《短歌行》，然後背誦最後十六字真言，正是：「山不厭高，海不厭深，周公吐哺，天下歸心。」從此也得記住，人生有四碗麵最難吃，除了杜月笙所說的人面、場面、情面，還有牛丸麵！
看罷信報游清源這篇文章，我們香港人對這個飲香港水、流香港血的特首，能不汗顏?
2009年1月18日
你在Facebook的身份究竟值幾錢?
若然犧牲十個在Facebook的朋友可換一份Burger King的Whopper (價值大約三美元)，你會否以友情換取食物? 好可惜，暫時不能知道。因為反應太熱烈，迅速便有233,906Facebook用户『犧牲』了他們的朋友，Facebook因此禁制了此Whopper Sacrifice的行動。換了是閣下在食物面前有怎樣取捨呢?
Hong Kong Review of Books?
偶讀文化報的報導，欣然知道我們中國也有了一份夠份量的書評期刋-- 上海《東方早報》期下的《上海書評》Shanghai Review of Books。究其實，有心人在這數年也出版了無數書評雜誌例如《書城》或《讀書》。但大多是大陸或台灣的出品。反觀香港在這數十年光景，一部似樣的Hong Kong Review of Books也未曾出現。當國際金融中心如紐約及倫敦也有這些深度文化書評出版，為什麼號稱在亞洲的國際金融中心的香港卻付諸闕如? 香港人，請不要夜郎自大了! 除了炒股揾銀叫雞唱k血拼打Golf飲紅酒，這個世界還有很多可供欣賞及值得花時間的東西。
上下其手，一針見血。
近日食多事繁，差一點便錯過了週六信報橋牌王啟明這篇短小而見血的文章。為什麼見血? 因為它道出了實情 : 這個世界直至現在仍然被金融大鱷支配著。金融理論、經濟學說只是他們的工具，用作在金融數字上上下其手的工具。不過，凡事盛極必衰，大鱷也有輸身家的時候，次按及其後的種種便是明證。最重要是我們用同一工具作出最詳盡分析，用真金白銀落注，打贏大鱷亦並非沒可能。去到最後，大鱷也是人，跟凡人一樣受大自然盛衰循環支配的。
2009年1月17日
Where to make money in 2009?
Time flies as we are approaching the Chinese New Year. That means the first month of 2009 will end soon. Given that money sitting in the bank's vault currently yields nothing, risk-takers must take action. But where to make money?
I believe we should chase where the money is. Since there aren't credit released by the banks (banks themselves have tough time repairing their balance sheet), the private sector which normally depends on the bank's handouts, will be dead. The government spending is the only game in town. Hence, we should pay attention to the details of the coming Obama's stimulus programs.
What to do:
a) Long Infrastructure-related stocks
b) Avoid companies that is short of cash or high gearing.
c) Avoid banks because managements have no incentive to take risk since their bonus are going to be forfeited no matter what has happened.
We should at the same time pay very close attention to the yield curve of the US Treasuries. If the US Treasuries yield surge, the risk appetite comes back as investors are withdrawing money out of the safe haven. Then, it is about time to long commodity-linked equities, despite the expectation that the investment community may be saying the corporate is suffering from the high cost of capital.
What to do:
a) Long commodity like oil, copper etc.
b) Long US.PST or other instruments that has a bearish view on US Treasuries.
Last but not least, I expect the US government will continue to absorb all the global financing power, ultimately crowding out all the other sovereign issues. Fiscally weak countries either have to raise interest rate or fall bankrupt. And I expect to see more instability, including some Eastern European countries.
I believe we should chase where the money is. Since there aren't credit released by the banks (banks themselves have tough time repairing their balance sheet), the private sector which normally depends on the bank's handouts, will be dead. The government spending is the only game in town. Hence, we should pay attention to the details of the coming Obama's stimulus programs.
What to do:
a) Long Infrastructure-related stocks
b) Avoid companies that is short of cash or high gearing.
c) Avoid banks because managements have no incentive to take risk since their bonus are going to be forfeited no matter what has happened.
We should at the same time pay very close attention to the yield curve of the US Treasuries. If the US Treasuries yield surge, the risk appetite comes back as investors are withdrawing money out of the safe haven. Then, it is about time to long commodity-linked equities, despite the expectation that the investment community may be saying the corporate is suffering from the high cost of capital.
What to do:
a) Long commodity like oil, copper etc.
b) Long US.PST or other instruments that has a bearish view on US Treasuries.
Last but not least, I expect the US government will continue to absorb all the global financing power, ultimately crowding out all the other sovereign issues. Fiscally weak countries either have to raise interest rate or fall bankrupt. And I expect to see more instability, including some Eastern European countries.
2009年1月13日
2009年1月7日
Inflation or deflation? A million dollar question.
The Marshall Plan. Cost: $12.7 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $115.3 billion.
The Lousiana Purchase. Cost: $15 million. Inflation-adjusted cost: $217 billion.
Race to the moon. Cost: $36.4 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $237 billion.
Savings and Loan crisis. Cost: $153 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $256 billion.
Korean War. Cost: $54 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $454 billion.
The New Deal. Cost: $32 billion (est.). Inflation-adjusted cost: $500 billion (est.)
Invasion of Iraq. Cost: $551 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $597 billion.
Vietnam War. Cost: $111 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $698 billion.
NASA. Cost: $416.7 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $851.2 billion.
Sources: PFP Wealth Management
What would be the final bill of the current bailout of the USA Inc? Possibly greater than everything combined as the aggregate total of $3.9 trillion is $686 billion less than the cost of the credit crisis in the US thus far, according to tally provided by Bloomberg. Make no mistakes, inflation is soon to be the game of the town because our beloved governments, plus the Central Banks I should add, are printing massive amount of money and planning to spend it to plug the credit crisis black hole. But since developed countries, not to mention the developing ones, are adopting the Beggar-Thy-Neighbour monetary policy, a falling greenback isn't a foregone conclusion. The competitive devaluation of currencies means it is prudent to allocate a certain percentage of your asset into precious metal like gold and silver.
The Lousiana Purchase. Cost: $15 million. Inflation-adjusted cost: $217 billion.
Race to the moon. Cost: $36.4 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $237 billion.
Savings and Loan crisis. Cost: $153 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $256 billion.
Korean War. Cost: $54 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $454 billion.
The New Deal. Cost: $32 billion (est.). Inflation-adjusted cost: $500 billion (est.)
Invasion of Iraq. Cost: $551 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $597 billion.
Vietnam War. Cost: $111 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $698 billion.
NASA. Cost: $416.7 billion. Inflation-adjusted cost: $851.2 billion.
Sources: PFP Wealth Management
What would be the final bill of the current bailout of the USA Inc? Possibly greater than everything combined as the aggregate total of $3.9 trillion is $686 billion less than the cost of the credit crisis in the US thus far, according to tally provided by Bloomberg. Make no mistakes, inflation is soon to be the game of the town because our beloved governments, plus the Central Banks I should add, are printing massive amount of money and planning to spend it to plug the credit crisis black hole. But since developed countries, not to mention the developing ones, are adopting the Beggar-Thy-Neighbour monetary policy, a falling greenback isn't a foregone conclusion. The competitive devaluation of currencies means it is prudent to allocate a certain percentage of your asset into precious metal like gold and silver.
2009年1月2日
大陸擬撤對台導彈? 是時候買台股了!
筆者相信機會甚濃。這是繼千億貸款援助台商後，胡主席對台又一突破性舉措。可喜可賀。可喜是因為中共終於明白撤導彈並不會等於失去對台反華勢力的威懾，就如《亞洲週刊》說"如果重新部署導彈不用超過四十小時。" 可賀是因為政治上是給足面子以助馬英九總統挽回民望，台海局勢有望穩定。
胡主席一連串的動作亦側面顯示台海戰略天秤正在向大陸傾斜。次按風暴下，台灣更需要大陸的扶持，此其一。馬英九國民黨重新執政，反映台灣民衆在民進黨治下八年後仍希望跟大陸和解，此其二。美方在自己國家水深火熱之際，亦無力阻撓國共和好如初，此其三。但是此戰略機遇一閃即逝，幸好胡主席看到了，並牢牢抓緊。所以可以預期惠台動作將排山倒海。
看來是時候買台股了!
胡主席一連串的動作亦側面顯示台海戰略天秤正在向大陸傾斜。次按風暴下，台灣更需要大陸的扶持，此其一。馬英九國民黨重新執政，反映台灣民衆在民進黨治下八年後仍希望跟大陸和解，此其二。美方在自己國家水深火熱之際，亦無力阻撓國共和好如初，此其三。但是此戰略機遇一閃即逝，幸好胡主席看到了，並牢牢抓緊。所以可以預期惠台動作將排山倒海。
看來是時候買台股了!
2009年1月1日
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