淨土宗教程 (一)

只此信願莊嚴一聲阿彌陀佛，轉劫濁為清淨海會，轉見濁為無量光，轉煩惱濁為常寂光，轉眾生濁為蓮華化生，轉命濁為無量壽。故一聲阿彌陀佛，即釋迦本師於五濁惡世所得之阿耨多羅三藐三菩提法。

蕅益大師

Four indicators that you need to pay attention to.

Hat tip to Donald Coxe's latest monthly commentary Basic Points. Mr. Coxe laid out four important financial indicators that investors should look at to gauge the tight credit market and hence the equity market:

1) The TED Spread

This indicator - the yield differential between the three-month Treasury bill and three month Eurodollar contracts - measures risk within the global banking system. The spread over T-Bills reflects bankers’ pricing of the risk in short-term loans to each other. A lower TED spread means banks are pricing in a lower risk on short-term loan, thereby suggesting banks are willing to lend to each other again. The TED peaked around 500 when Lehman collapsed. It is currently 216. If it breaks 150 and stays there for at least a week, the financial crisis, according to Coxe, may "no longer command center stage."


The TED Spread Chart (One Year)

2) The S&P Bank Stock Index relative to S&P 500 Index

A rising relative index means the S&P 500 Bank shares outperform the S&P 500 Index. A sustainable rally of the S&P Bank shares relative to the S&P 500 may mean a re-rating of banking stocks, which would also led to a re-rating of the equity market. The credit market, being frozen by the collapse of the Lehman Brothers, would also be reactivated. The relative chart looks good as the index stays above 0.14.


The Relative chart of S&P 500 Bank Index against S&P 500 Index

3) The VIX Index

If the volatility index, a measure of the rate and magnitude of changes in price, keeps retreating, investors may be ready to go back to the equity market. VIX starts dropping back from the highs of the 80s. Looking good.


Volatility Index (VIX)

4) The Yen and the US Dollar

Since they have been playing role as a carry currencies for some time, their strength suggests the market is de-leveraging. Their retreat, on the contrary, means the market reverts to normalcy. That, hopefully, may mean the distress sales of hedge fund assets and of bankrupt assets have dwindled. The drop of DXY from 88 to 86is a good sign. If the yen can hold above 95, it would be another confirmation that the forced selling has ended.


The US Dollar Index


The Japanese Yen per 1 USD

When all four indicators have confirmed i.e. The TED spread to drop, the S&P Bank Index relative to S&P 500 Index to rise, the VIX Index to drop and the Yen/US Dollar to drop, it will be time to start buying stocks.

A sea of unwanted imports.

Look at this vivid picture captured by New York Times and you will know people in US do not have the appetite financially to get new cars. Hence, all the new cars are parked at the port at Long Beach, California.

Good food in Texas.

Having spent eight days in Austin, I admit that I love the food, especially the Tex-Mex cuisine. The restaurants that I have visited include:

1) Texadelphia. The original Texas Cheesestake.

2) Pappadeaus. The seafood kitchen.

3) The Cheesecake Factory.

4) Rudy's. The Bar-B-Q expert.

5) Souper Salad.

6) Jim's Restaurant.

7) Kerbey Lane.

8) Trulucks.

9. Amy's ice cream.

Among the food I love the most is the fries dipped with Queso from the Texadelphia! The Bar-B-Q baby back rip from Rudy's also impressed me. Coupled with the sweet cream corn sides and one order of a half pound of Brisket Moist type would mean a perfect lunch. Of course, I wouldn't forget to order a bottle of IBC orange soda. The modest Jim's Restaurant meanwhile is a good place for breakfast. The Real Texas Breakfast would be a good start i.e. a Sunkist orange juice and an order of Chicken Fried Steak Breakfast that has the chicken fried stake topped with delicious Country Gravy, served with Two Eggs scramble style, plus Hash Brown and wheat toast (with jelly). That is only US$10 plus tax! Of course, I wouldn't miss my favorite dessert - the Amy's ice cream. A small bowl of Belgian chocolate ice cream with hot fudge on top. That would be perfect!

The 21st Century Coalition

Now, Obama is the President-elect. A black is going to claim the White House for the next four years. That is incredible for United States which until 1970s still enacted policy that discriminate the African Americans. In any case, many pundits are now very busy writing analysis on the voting pattern. And USAToday, the day after the election, rushed out to define the Obama supporters the "21st Century Coalition." They are:

A) Americans under 30, members of the huge Millennial generation that are moving into voting age.

B) Hispanic voters. Despite McCain's Southwest roots and work on immigration reform. Obama was carrying Hispanics by more than 2 to 1.

C) Women with children. The Democratic has also widened advantage among working women.

I believe politicians from now on shouldn't discount Latinos since they are the nation's fastest-growing ethnic group. And their stance towards the illegal immigrants would be closely scrutinized. The eight years of Bush administrator wasn't very friendly to the illegal immigrants despite his deep roots in Texas.

And that has taken a heavy toll in the 2008 election.

Despite McCain taking the electoral votes of Texas, McCain can only take 55.5% of all the popular votes of Texans. In 2004, Bush claimed 61.1% of all popular votes in Texas. The drop in the McCain's advantage could be explained by the surge of absolute number of voters supporting Obama. Approximately 3,521,164 voted Obama in 2008, a 24.3% increase, as only 2,832,704 registered voted the John Kerry Democratic ticket. The get-out-to-vote campaign kick-started by the Obama team seems to make an impact here. I suspect the Latinos also get out to vote to vent their anger against the Bush eight years of unfriendly policy against the illegal immigrants which is mostly from Mexico.

Digging further into the numbers, all four major cities of Texas including Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston all fell into the Democratic camp. In 2004, only city of Austin, the Capital of Texas, voted John Kerry.

Below are the detail information on the four major counties' voting pattern:

Dallas County: 57.5% for Obama (2004: 50.3% for Bush)
Harris Country (Houston): 50.5% for Obama (2004: 54.8% for Bush)
Bexar County (San Antonio): 52.4% for Obama (2004: 54.8% for Bush)
Travis County (Austin): 64.1% for Obama (2004: 42.0% for Bush)

We are seeing a tectonic shift even in the lone star state!